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Reform at a Glance: Polling, Populism, and the Problems with Britain's New Right

The 2024 general election did more than get Labour into government, it catapulted Reform UK into mainstream politics and media. The 14.3% share of the vote won by Reform placed them third and confirmed their growing popularity and support. While this didn’t result in Reform capturing a high number of seats, it is nonetheless undeniable that this party – labelled far-right by Hope not Hate – has emerged as a major political force in Britain. 

 

So, how has Reform managed this… and what does it mean for the future of UK politics? 

 


Polling and Voters

In December, Reform claimed to have overtaken Labour as Britain’s largest political party in membership. While Labour members have plummeted since the general election, Reform’s have skyrocketed, and their website live counter now declares that they are over 270k members strong. After already receiving an unanticipatedly high number of votes in the general election last July, YouGov’s latest voting figures state that, now, nearly a quarter of Brits (24%) would consider voting for the party in the future. A recent Hope Not Hate poll shows that if an election were held today, Reform would be looking at gaining between 76 and 169 seats in Parliament. The anti-racism advocacy group called the results “a wake up call for us all”.  

 

Such growth in such a short amount of time is unprecedented. So, who are their supporters and where are they coming from?  

 

In the broadest terms, Reform is more attractive to men and older generations. But beyond this, the coalition of voters has been found to hold many different and often contradictory groups, from struggling workers to wealthy retirees, each with their own motivations and priorities. While Reform has also been successful at gaining votes from those who don’t normally participate in elections, a significant portion of this new coalition has come from disillusioned Conservative voters. Many of their supporters cite the failures of the Conservatives and Labour as their reason for switching parties, and report feeling particularly frustrated by the previous Tory government’s broken promise to decrease migration. This has allowed Reform to draw a third of their votes from the Conservative voter base, with nearly 80% of people who voted Reform in 2024 having voted for the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. 

 


What Attracts People to Reform?

Although the rising support for Reform is part of a wider global shift towards more right-wing politics, much of Reform’s recent success has hinged upon the party leader: the infamous Nigel Farage. Like him or loathe him, Farage’s communication style is commanding, effective, and strategically charismatic. He deliberately contrasts the evasive, technocratic discourse associated with Westminster politics with blunt and simple messaging, framing himself as a plain-speaking outsider, a ‘man of the people’. By doing so, he has been able to present Reform as a populist party and build a narrative that transforms them into the champions of the working class. Or, more accurately, the champions of the white working class. 

 

Reform hasn’t been the only party to scapegoat migrants and ethnic minorities for political failings, but they’ve certainly taken it the furthest. Blaming economic inequality on immigration disrupts solidarity and points the finger away from the institutions that Reform is entrenched in and funded by… and allows them to push discriminatory policy to boot. Having manufactured the outrage, Reform can then offer promises of net zero migration and mass deportation to placate it. It is unsurprising, then, that hostility towards immigration is the main thing that attracts people to Reform, with 71% citing it as their reason for voting for the party.  

 

Farage’s performance of the practical everyman has also allowed him to position himself as different from other politicians, and Reform as outside of the political mainstream. With a lot of people in Britain feeling let down by the prevailing two-party system, this distinct party identity is a key part of Reform’s appeal. 19% of Reform considerers say that the most attractive aspect is that they are different from the established parties and represent a new approach. This has also earned Farage implicit trust among his followers. Most Reform voters are unable to explain the party’s economic policies in any great detail, but they all seem to agree that Farage ‘talks sense’ and has the workingman’s best interests at heart. 

 


Problems and Controversy

In reality, many of Reform's policies don't remotely safeguard the workingman and, in some cases, actively weaken working class rights. Their proposed "great repeal act" would see the abolishment of the Employment Rights Act and the Renters' Rights Act, two pieces of legislation that ensure basic protections in employment and housing. This policy is not reflective of working class interests, but rather the interests of the party's top donors: real estate investors, fossil fuel extractors, and private equity funds, all of whom would benefit from a deregulated and inequitable economy. (You can find out more about Reform’s donors here) 

 

There is also another potential conflict of interest for Reform in the wave of defections from the Conservatives they have taken in since the general election. So far, they have absorbed 8 members of previous Tory cabinets, including former Minister Robert Jenrick and former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. At a glance, this looks like a win for Reform, but it threatens to undermine the very same ‘new approach’ for which they have gained their popularity. Every has-been Tory MP that they bring on board weakens their reputation as being different to the Conservatives. As Anna Turley, Labour Party chair, puts it, “Farage is stuffing his party full of the failed Tories responsible for the chaos and decline that held Britain back for 14 years”.  

 

While effectively reassembling a former cabinet may help with the concerns that the party lacks real experience (with 11% of considerers citing this as their main reservation), they risk compromising their distinct political identity, losing voters’ trust in the process. 

 

As well as jeopardising their reputation, this also creates a hotbed for infighting and insurrection. The former Tory Government was marked by disloyalty, scandals, and regicide, burning through four prime ministers in four years. When you consider this alongside Farage and Jenrick’s already fraught relationship (the former calling the latter a ”fraud” and the latter saying he wanted to send the former “into retirement”) and the various rival parties that have been founded after fallings out with Farage (Advance UK and Restore Britain, to name a few) it sets a precedent of betrayal and instability, making the future of the party look uncertain and its politicians look unreliable. 

 

The most glaringly obvious problem with Reform, however, is that their policies regarding stricter immigration controls, cultural change, and national identity will potentially lead to racist legislation and hostility in the long term. When the third biggest party in the country openly scapegoats migrants, refugees, and Muslims for problems created by government, billionaires, and the establishment, it redirects anger away from the real structural causes. When Farage calls for the mass deportation of children and Reform MPs complain about TV ads “full of black people”, they create a climate of intolerance and suspicion that squeezes the public understanding of what it means to be ‘British’ into an ever narrower, maybe even whiter, definition. 


 

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